What Structural Reforms Are Most Urgent for Ethiopia’s Next Decade?
Ethiopia enters the next decade at a decisive inflection point. Two decades of state-led, infrastructure-driven growth delivered substantial physical transformation and periods of rapid expansion. Yet the limits of this model are now visible: mounting debt pressures, foreign exchange shortages, low productivity, fragile exports, institutional strain, and persistent political instability. The question is no longer whether Ethiopia needs reform, but which reforms matter most, in what order, and why . Structural reform is not a generic checklist. For Ethiopia, urgency must be defined by constraints that threaten macroeconomic stability, employment creation, and national cohesion. This essay argues that Ethiopia’s next decade hinges on five interlinked reform pillars : export capacity and productivity, state and SOE reform, financial and foreign exchange reform, private sector empowerment, and institutional governance. Without progress across these areas, growth will remain vulnerabl...