WHY JAPAN MAY BE BETTER PREPARED FOR AN AGEING WORLD.
What Can the World's Most Aged Major Society Teach Countries Preparing for a Demographic Transformation?
The world is getting older.
For much of modern history, governments planned their economies around expanding populations, growing workforces and large numbers of young people entering employment. That model is changing.
People are living longer. Birth rates are falling in many countries. Families are becoming smaller, and the number of people available to support older relatives is declining in some societies.
This transformation will affect almost everything: healthcare, pensions, housing, employment, transport, technology, public finances and the organisation of families.
Japan has already been living through this future for decades.
In 2025, people aged 65 and over represented 29.4% of Japan's population—approximately 36.22 million people. More than 21 million were aged 75 or older. The Japanese government's 2026 Ageing Society White Paper projects that the proportion aged 65 and over could reach 38.7% by 2070.
Japan is therefore more than a country with an ageing population. It is an important real-world case study in how an advanced economy attempts to reorganise itself around longer lives and a smaller working-age population.
But there is a distinction worth making:
Japan is not necessarily solving every problem associated with ageing. It is developing institutions, technologies and social practices from which other countries can learn.
The question is whether the rest of the world can learn from Japan before demographic pressures become overwhelming.
The ageing world is no longer a Japanese problem
The demographic transformation is global.
According to the World Health Organization, the number of people aged 60 and over is expected to rise from approximately 1 billion in 2020 to 1.4 billion by 2030, and 2.1 billion by 2050.
Even more important, by 2050, approximately 80% of the world's older population will live in low- and middle-income countries.
This changes the international conversation.
Ageing is often presented as a challenge facing wealthy countries such as Japan, Germany, Italy and South Korea. But developing economies are also approaching major demographic transitions, sometimes without the pension systems, healthcare infrastructure or financial resources needed to support older citizens.
Africa, for example, has a relatively young population today. Yet its countries must prepare for longer life expectancy, changing family structures and future growth in older populations.
The lesson is clear: a country does not need to be old today to need an ageing strategy tomorrow.
Japan's demographic reality: A society already living in the future
Japan's demographic transformation is particularly advanced.
The country's 2025 figures show:
Indicator | Japan, 2025 |
|---|---|
Total population | 123.22 million |
Population aged 65+ | 36.22 million |
Share aged 65+ | 29.4% |
Population aged 75+ | 21.27 million |
Share aged 75+ | 17.3% |
Working-age population, 15–64 | 73.53 million |
One particularly important development is that the population aged 75 and over is now larger than the population aged 65–74.
This matters because the likelihood of needing assistance with daily activities, complex healthcare and long-term care generally increases with age, although individual health and ability vary considerably.
Japan is also experiencing population decline. Preliminary 2025 census figures show a decrease of approximately 3.1 million people compared with 2020. The population declined in more than 90% of Japanese municipalities.
The challenge is therefore not simply that Japan has more older people.
It is that many communities must provide services with fewer working-age residents, fewer local businesses and a shrinking tax base.
Japan's first major lesson: Ageing requires an institutional response
One of Japan's most significant policy decisions was the introduction of its Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system in 2000.
Before a society develops extensive long-term care arrangements, families often carry much of the responsibility for looking after older relatives.
This can place enormous pressure on adult children, particularly women, who may have to reduce working hours or leave employment to provide care.
Japan's long-term care insurance system was designed to make care a broader social responsibility.
The system covers eligible people who need long-term care, with municipalities acting as the insurers. It is financed through insurance contributions and public funding. People aged 40 and above contribute to the system, while older people are among those most likely to receive benefits.
The system supports services such as:
Home-based care.
Day-care services.
Residential care.
Rehabilitation.
Assistance with daily living.
Support for people with dementia.
Care management and individual care planning.
This is an important shift in social organisation.
Care is no longer treated exclusively as a private family responsibility. It is recognised as a public policy issue requiring financing, institutions, professional workers and long-term planning.
However, Japan's system faces rising costs and pressure to maintain sufficient care workers. It is a model to study, not a system that can simply be copied without considering each country's financial capacity.
The community-based care model: Helping people age in familiar surroundings
Japan's next important lesson is that ageing policy cannot be limited to hospitals and nursing homes.
Many older people want to remain in their own homes, neighbourhoods and communities for as long as possible.
Japan has been developing what it calls the Community-Based Integrated Care System.
The idea is to coordinate five essential elements:
Housing.
Medical care.
Long-term nursing and personal care.
Preventive healthcare.
Daily-life support and social participation.
The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare wants these services to be available in ways that allow older people to continue living in familiar surroundings, with dignity and appropriate assistance.
This approach recognises that an older person may need more than a doctor.
They may also need:
Accessible housing.
Help with shopping and cooking.
Transport to medical appointments.
Social activities to reduce isolation.
Rehabilitation and mobility support.
Assistance with medication and daily routines.
A hospital cannot solve all these problems.
An effective ageing society must connect healthcare with housing, transport, local government, families and community organisations.
The lesson for other countries is that ageing is not just a medical issue. It is a community-design issue.
Japan's older workers: Retirement does not have to mean economic withdrawal
One of Japan's most interesting responses to demographic pressure is the continued participation of older people in employment.
Rather than treating everyone over 65 as economically inactive, Japan has increasingly encouraged longer working lives.
According to Japan's 2026 Ageing Society White Paper, the 2025 employment rate was:
54.5% among people aged 65–69.
36.2% among people aged 70–74.
12.6% among people aged 75 and over.
The country's employment policies also require employers to secure employment opportunities for workers up to age 65, through measures such as raising retirement ages, continuing employment systems or abolishing mandatory retirement. Employment opportunities up to age 70 are an effort-based obligation.
The OECD has also highlighted Japan's comparatively high employment participation among older workers. Its 2025 employment outlook reported that the employment ratio among people aged 55–64 rose by 10.5 percentage points between 2014 and 2024, reaching 79.2%.
This has several implications.
Older workers can contribute:
Technical experience.
Mentoring and professional training.
Institutional knowledge.
Customer service.
Small-business expertise.
Skilled supervision.
A 68-year-old engineer may have decades of knowledge that a younger employee has not yet acquired.
A 72-year-old entrepreneur may still have the experience and motivation to run a business.
But there is a necessary qualification: working longer must be a genuine choice, not an economic necessity imposed on people who cannot afford to retire. Governments must also address age discrimination, physically demanding jobs and unequal access to decent employment.
Japan's experience raises an important question for the global economy:
Should societies measure economic contribution only by the number of people aged 15–64, or should they recognise the productive potential of healthy older adults as well?
Robotics and AI: Can technology compensate for a shrinking workforce?
This is where Japan's ageing challenge intersects directly with its technological strengths.
Japan has decades of experience in industrial automation, robotics, precision engineering and electronics.
These capabilities are increasingly relevant to an economy in which the demand for care and support is growing while the supply of available workers is under pressure.
Potential applications include:
Technology | Possible contribution |
|---|---|
Care-assistance robots | Help with transfers and physically demanding tasks |
AI health monitoring | Identify changes in health and support early intervention |
Autonomous delivery robots | Move food, medicines and supplies |
Smart home systems | Detect falls and unusual activity |
Rehabilitation robotics | Support mobility and physical recovery |
AI administration | Reduce paperwork for healthcare professionals |
Mobility technologies | Help older people remain independent |
Japan's government has established priority areas for care technology, including mobility assistance, monitoring, rehabilitation, nutrition and dementia-related support.
But there is an important distinction between technological capability and successful deployment.
A robot that works in a laboratory may not work reliably in a crowded care facility. An AI monitoring system may generate false alarms. A digital service may exclude older people who are uncomfortable with smartphones.
Technology must therefore be evaluated according to whether it actually improves care, reduces staff workload, protects privacy and preserves human dignity.
The objective should be to make care workers more capable—not to pretend that machines can replace every human relationship.
Japan's longevity economy: Older people are also consumers, investors and entrepreneurs
An ageing population is often discussed as a financial burden.
But that is only one side of the story.
Older people are also consumers with needs, preferences, savings, skills and purchasing power.
This creates opportunities in what is commonly called the longevity economy.
It includes businesses serving people who want to live longer, healthier and more independent lives.
Potential industries include:
Accessible housing and home renovation.
Medical devices and preventive healthcare.
Nutrition and specialised food products.
Tourism and leisure.
Mobility services.
Financial planning and retirement services.
Assistive technologies.
Education and lifelong learning.
Personal care and home support.
Businesses that understand older consumers may discover markets that traditional youth-focused marketing has overlooked.
However, older people are not one uniform market. A healthy 66-year-old professional and an 88-year-old person needing daily assistance have very different needs.
Companies must understand differences in income, health, mobility, digital literacy and personal preferences.
Japan's experience shows why demographic change can create new markets as well as new costs.
Housing and transport: Designing cities for longer lives
A society can have excellent hospitals and still fail older people if they cannot safely move around their communities.
Consider the everyday challenges:
Climbing stairs.
Accessing public transport.
Crossing busy roads.
Reaching shops and pharmacies.
Living in homes with narrow doorways and difficult bathrooms.
Travelling from rural communities to medical facilities.
Japan's 2026 ageing policy includes measures to improve housing access, support older people in the rental market, address transport gaps and develop safer walking environments.
This is an important policy direction because independence is not simply a matter of medical health.
It also depends on whether people can leave their homes, meet others, buy necessities and participate in society.
The next generation of age-friendly cities will need to integrate:
Step-free buildings and stations.
Reliable public transport.
Safe pedestrian infrastructure.
Accessible public toilets.
Age-friendly housing.
Digital mobility services.
Community-based transport in areas where conventional services are limited.
This has lessons for rapidly urbanising economies across Asia and Africa, where cities can incorporate accessibility into new infrastructure rather than attempting expensive retrofits decades later.
The hidden challenge: Loneliness, dementia and changing family structures
Longer life expectancy does not automatically guarantee a better quality of life.
Some older people experience loneliness, social isolation, reduced mobility, dementia or financial insecurity.
Japan's changing household structure also matters. More people are living alone, and traditional assumptions about adult children caring for ageing parents are becoming less reliable.
The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare identifies the increasing numbers of older people living alone, people with dementia and people aged 85 and above as major challenges for its community-based care planning towards 2040.
This means ageing policy must consider more than the provision of medical treatment.
It must also ask:
Who checks on an older person living alone?
How can people with dementia remain included in community life?
How can family caregivers receive practical and emotional support?
How can communities identify neglect and abuse?
How can older people remain socially connected?
How can digital technology support rather than isolate people?
A robot may deliver food, but it cannot automatically provide friendship.
A digital monitoring system may identify a fall, but it cannot replace a caring community.
The future of ageing must be about human connection as much as healthcare and technology.
Japan's weaknesses: What the world should not copy blindly
Japan has developed substantial experience, but it has not escaped the consequences of demographic change.
Its challenges include:
A. Pressure on public finances
Pensions, healthcare and long-term care require significant and recurring funding. An ageing population creates difficult decisions about taxation, insurance contributions, benefits and intergenerational fairness.
B. Labour shortages
The number of available workers is declining. Healthcare, care services, construction, transport and regional businesses face recruitment difficulties.
C. Rural depopulation
Many smaller communities are losing residents, including younger people. Maintaining hospitals, schools, shops and public transport becomes more difficult as populations shrink.
D. Care-worker shortages
Expanding demand for care does not automatically create enough trained professionals to provide it. Better pay, working conditions, training and career progression are essential.
E. Unequal retirement security
Not everyone enters old age with the same savings, pension entitlements, housing security or family support.
F. Gender inequality in unpaid care
Women have historically carried a disproportionate share of family care responsibilities. A successful ageing strategy must avoid transferring more unpaid work onto women.
G. Immigration and workforce policy
Japan has expanded foreign-worker pathways, including in care-related occupations, but questions remain about integration, training, working conditions and the scale of migration needed.
The OECD has argued that Japan needs a combination of greater labour-force participation, productivity improvements and carefully designed migration policy to support future growth.
These difficulties are not evidence that Japan's experience has no value. They demonstrate that no single policy or technology can solve demographic change on its own.
Japan, China, South Korea and Europe: Different societies, similar pressures
Japan is not the only country facing an ageing population. Other major economies are confronting similar demographic pressures, but from different starting points.
Country or region | Demographic challenge | Important policy question |
|---|---|---|
Japan | Very high proportion of older people and declining population | How can care, employment and productivity be sustained? |
South Korea | Rapid ageing and very low fertility | How can institutions adapt quickly enough? |
China | Large ageing population alongside a changing workforce | How can pensions, healthcare and economic growth be balanced? |
Germany | Ageing workforce and demand for skilled labour | How can migration, automation and employment participation support the economy? |
Italy | Long-standing low fertility and population ageing | How can smaller communities and public services remain viable? |
Taiwan | Low fertility, longer life expectancy and a shrinking workforce | How can technology, care systems and labour policy adapt? |
The United Nations' World Population Prospects 2024 projects continued growth in the proportion of older people across countries whose populations have already peaked. In this group, the share aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 17% in 2024 to 33% in 2054.
There is no universal solution. Countries have different pension systems, labour markets, migration policies, family structures and fiscal capacities.
Japan's experience is particularly relevant because it has already spent years adjusting to conditions that other economies are only beginning to confront.
What can Africa learn from Japan?
This is perhaps the most important international question.
Africa is often described as the world's youngest continent. Its demographic profile is very different from Japan's.
But being young today does not remove the need to prepare for an ageing population tomorrow.
The World Health Organization estimates that by 2050, 80% of the world's older people will live in low- and middle-income countries.
Many African countries could therefore face a difficult combination: growing numbers of older citizens, limited pension coverage, informal employment, inadequate healthcare infrastructure and families that may no longer be able to provide all the care traditionally expected of them.
Japan offers at least seven lessons.
1. Build long-term care systems before the crisis becomes severe.
African governments should begin designing affordable arrangements that combine family support, community care, public health services and insurance.
2. Recognise older people as economic contributors.
Older citizens should not be excluded from employment, entrepreneurship, professional mentoring and community leadership simply because they have passed a conventional retirement age.
3. Invest in preventive healthcare.
Preventing or delaying chronic illness and disability can improve quality of life and reduce pressure on hospitals and families.
4. Develop age-friendly cities.
Accessible transport, housing, roads and public facilities benefit older people, people with disabilities, pregnant women and families with young children.
5. Build local care industries.
There are opportunities in nursing education, home-care services, rehabilitation, assistive devices, medical equipment and community health services.
6. Use technology to strengthen care.
Affordable monitoring systems, telemedicine, mobile health services and appropriate robotics could help extend the reach of limited healthcare workforces.
7. Protect family caregivers.
Government policy should recognise unpaid care as a real economic contribution and provide support, training and respite services where possible.
Africa–Asia cooperation: A new opportunity?
Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan have different capabilities in healthcare technology, robotics, electronics and manufacturing.
African countries could explore partnerships involving:
Training African nurses and care professionals.
Manufacturing affordable assistive devices.
Developing local medical-equipment supply chains.
Establishing rehabilitation and elderly-care facilities.
Sharing expertise in age-friendly housing and transport.
Building AI-assisted healthcare systems.
Supporting African research into healthy ageing.
The objective should be more than importing equipment.
It should be developing African industries, professional skills and institutions that can serve an ageing population sustainably.
The economic opportunity: Could ageing become a new global industry?
For decades, global business has concentrated heavily on young consumers: fashion, entertainment, smartphones, social media and lifestyle products.
But demographic change is creating another major economic market.
The longevity economy could become an important source of demand across multiple sectors.
Industry | Emerging opportunity |
|---|---|
Healthcare | Preventive medicine, diagnostics and home healthcare |
Robotics | Care assistance and rehabilitation |
Housing | Accessible homes and age-friendly construction |
Financial services | Retirement planning and long-term savings |
Food | Nutrition and specialised dietary products |
Transport | Accessible mobility and community transport |
Technology | Digital health, monitoring and assistive AI |
Tourism | Senior-friendly travel and longer-stay tourism |
Education | Lifelong learning and professional reskilling |
Japan could play a major role in this market because its demographic experience creates demand for practical solutions.
But other countries may become equally important suppliers of specialised products, software, services and affordable healthcare systems.
The longevity economy should not be viewed merely as a market for selling products to older people. Its real potential is to support longer, healthier and more independent lives.
Three possible futures for an ageing world by 2050
Scenario A — The healthy longevity economy
Countries invest in preventive healthcare, accessible cities, lifelong education, flexible employment and assistive technology. Older citizens remain active for longer, and businesses develop products and services around longer lives.
Scenario B — The unequal ageing society
Wealthier citizens enjoy longer, healthier lives with access to private care and advanced technology. Poorer households face inadequate pensions, limited healthcare and the burden of unpaid family care.
Scenario C — The automated ageing society
Robotics, AI and digital healthcare help compensate for labour shortages. However, countries that lack infrastructure, investment and technical skills fall behind.
The outcome will depend on public policy, economic development, institutional capacity and the distribution of technological benefits.
Japan's experience suggests that demographic preparation must begin long before a society reaches its highest levels of ageing.
Final editorial assessment: Japan's greatest lesson is preparation
Japan may be better prepared for an ageing world because it has spent decades confronting demographic change and building responses across healthcare, employment, technology, housing and community services.
Its long-term care insurance system, community-based care model, older-worker participation and investment in assistive technologies provide valuable examples for other societies.
But Japan also demonstrates the cost of waiting too long to address declining fertility, shrinking workforces, rural depopulation and the financial sustainability of care.
There is no reason to romanticise its experience. Its difficulties are real, and its policies cannot simply be transplanted into countries with different economic and social conditions.
Nevertheless, the strategic lesson is powerful:
Ageing should not be treated as a national emergency that begins when a country has too many older people. It should be treated as a long-term transformation that governments, businesses and communities must prepare for together.
The countries that adapt successfully will not necessarily be those with the youngest populations or the most advanced robots.
They will be those that learn how to combine human experience, healthcare, technology, productive employment and social protection.
And perhaps the most important measure of a successful society will be this:
How well does it treat its citizens when they grow old?
By Jugo Ikeji Uju
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