A scenario forecast: Africa 2035 under continued U.S.–China rivalry and a political economy deep dive into patronage systems and executive power

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  1. Scenario Forecast: Africa 2035 under Continued U.S.–China Rivalry.

  2. Political Economy Deep Dive: Patronage Systems and Executive Power in Africa.

Both focus on institutional incentives, state capacity, and geopolitical leverage rather than personality-driven narratives.

I. Scenario Forecast: Africa 2035 Under Continued U.S.–China Rivalry

By 2035, Africa will likely be the most strategically contested region in the global system—not because of military dominance, but because of demography, critical minerals, trade routes, and industrial potential.

The rivalry between the United States and China will not resemble Cold War bipolarity. It will be competitive interdependence—technology, infrastructure, finance, and standards competition layered across African states.

Three plausible scenarios emerge.

Scenario 1: Strategic Non-Alignment 2.0 (Most Likely)

African states refine a pragmatic balancing strategy:

  • Accept infrastructure financing from China.

  • Engage the United States on digital governance, security, and capital markets.

  • Expand regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

  • Diversify partners (India, Gulf states, EU, Turkey).

In this scenario:

  • No African bloc formally aligns with either power.

  • Governance models remain diverse.

  • External competition improves bargaining leverage.

Risk:

  • Debt overhang from overlapping financing commitments.

  • Technology fragmentation (U.S. vs. Chinese digital ecosystems).

Opportunity:

  • Infrastructure scaling without total dependency.

  • Industrial policy experimentation.

This resembles a modernized version of the Non-Aligned Movement—less ideological, more transactional.

Scenario 2: Fragmented Sphere Competition (Moderate Probability)

Under intensified U.S.–China rivalry, African states increasingly bifurcate:

  • Some adopt Chinese technology standards (5G, surveillance infrastructure, digital ID systems).

  • Others integrate into Western regulatory frameworks and financial markets.

  • Supply chains and digital ecosystems become incompatible.

Consequences:

  • Regulatory fragmentation across the continent.

  • Uneven industrial development.

  • Political polarization influenced by external patronage.

In this scenario, African agency narrows because technological and financial lock-in reduces maneuverability.

Risk:

  • Sovereignty erosion through infrastructure dependency.

  • Elite capture by foreign-aligned business networks.

Scenario 3: Institutional Consolidation and Continental Leverage (Optimistic)

African states collectively leverage rivalry to strengthen internal institutions:

  • Coordinated mineral policy (lithium, cobalt, rare earths).

  • Regional industrial zones.

  • Debt transparency frameworks.

  • Stronger anti-corruption enforcement.

Under this outcome:

  • Rivalry becomes leverage rather than vulnerability.

  • Executive overreach declines as fiscal transparency improves.

  • Youth demographic dividend fuels industrial expansion.

This scenario requires:

  • Judicial independence.

  • Civil-military professionalism.

  • Transparent public procurement.

Absent institutional reform, rivalry amplifies existing fragility.

Strategic Drivers to Watch (2025–2035)

  1. Critical Minerals Policy
    Control of cobalt, lithium, and rare earths will define bargaining power.

  2. Debt Structure
    Whether debt is renegotiated transparently or used to entrench patronage networks.

  3. Digital Infrastructure
    Competing governance standards in surveillance, AI, and data sovereignty.

  4. Security Partnerships
    Private military contractors, counterterrorism cooperation, and regional security blocs.

  5. Youth Employment
    With Africa’s population projected to exceed 1.7 billion by 2035, job creation will determine political stability more than geopolitical alignment.

The rivalry itself will not determine Africa’s future. Institutional maturity will.

II. Political Economy Deep Dive: Patronage Systems and Executive Power

Understanding governance trajectories in Africa requires examining patronage structures—not abstract ideology.

Patronage politics is not simply corruption. It is an informal distribution system embedded in state formation.

1. The Executive as Resource Gatekeeper

In many African states:

  • The executive controls licensing, procurement, security appointments, and state-owned enterprises.

  • Resource extraction sectors (oil, minerals, agriculture) feed central revenue pools.

  • Fiscal centralization increases presidential leverage.

This creates a vertical power structure:

Executive → Ministerial Control → Regional Brokers → Local Elites → Voters

Political loyalty often correlates with access to state contracts or employment.

2. Term Limits and Power Retention

Where patronage networks are entrenched, leadership turnover threatens:

  • Economic access for aligned elites.

  • Protection from prosecution.

  • Control of security apparatus.

Therefore, term-limit amendments are often economically rational within patronage systems.

The issue is not merely ambition; it is systemic risk for ruling coalitions.

3. Security Sector Alignment

Executive durability frequently depends on:

  • Military professionalization (or lack thereof).

  • Intelligence service loyalty.

  • Control of internal security funding.

Where security institutions are depoliticized, executive overreach declines.
Where security is patronage-linked, accountability weakens.

4. External Financing as Patronage Multiplier

U.S.–China rivalry intersects here.

Large infrastructure loans or security partnerships can:

  • Expand executive-controlled capital pools.

  • Increase discretionary spending.

  • Reduce dependence on domestic taxation.

Tax-dependent states are generally more accountable to citizens.
Externally financed states may be less fiscally responsive.

Thus, geopolitical competition can unintentionally reinforce executive dominance if transparency mechanisms are weak.

5. Civil Society and Countervailing Power

Patronage systems persist where:

  • Media independence is constrained.

  • Electoral commissions lack autonomy.

  • Opposition financing is restricted.

Institutional counterweights shift incentives:

  • Independent courts increase cost of abuse.

  • Transparent procurement reduces elite capture.

  • Decentralization limits central patronage concentration.

6. Reform Levers

To reduce patronage entrenchment by 2035, African states would need:

  • Public procurement digitization.

  • Transparent mineral revenue reporting.

  • Civil service professionalization.

  • Judicial budget independence.

  • Security sector reform.

These reforms reduce executive monopoly over resource distribution.

Integrated Assessment: Rivalry Meets Patronage

If U.S.–China rivalry intensifies without institutional reform:

  • Patronage systems will absorb external capital.

  • Executive dominance may strengthen.

  • Democratic formalities may persist without substantive accountability.

If rivalry is leveraged strategically:

  • Infrastructure can enable industrialization.

  • Mineral wealth can fund sovereign wealth mechanisms.

  • Institutional strengthening can enhance sovereignty.

The determinant variable is not which external power is engaged.

It is whether domestic institutions constrain executive discretion.

Final Outlook for 2035

Africa in 2035 will not be defined by U.S. or Chinese ideology. It will be defined by:

  • Whether patronage systems evolve into rule-based governance.

  • Whether youth employment reduces political volatility.

  • Whether fiscal transparency replaces elite rent extraction.

U.S.–China rivalry is an amplifier. It magnifies strengths and weaknesses.

If institutions mature, rivalry becomes leverage.
If institutions stagnate, rivalry entrenches executive power.

The decisive arena is internal state capacity—not external alignment.


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