The Day After Khamenei: Iran’s ‘Liberation’ Will Begin as an IRGC Power Struggle
Many imagine the day after Ali Khamenei as a moment of sudden liberation: Iranians shaking off the mullahs and deciding their own destiny. The likelier opening act is far less romantic.
The immediate aftermath will probably look less like a velvet revolution and more like the opening round of an insider power struggle—staged and refereed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its allies. The institutions that have grown strongest under Khamenei are not parliaments, parties, or independent courts, but the security state and its sprawling economic empire. Those are the actors best positioned to inherit the republic he leaves behind.
Iran’s Transition Will Unfold in Two Phases
The most probable political sequence is a two‑step process:
Phase one is an insider succession: IRGC commanders and regime factions compete, bargain, and improvise a new leadership formula that keeps real power in roughly the same hands.
Phase two—if it comes at all—follows only if that militarized order fails to stabilize the country: then ordinary Iranians may get a real opening to renegotiate the system. Calling the fall of Khamenei “liberation,” therefore, misses the hard part. The man at the top may go; the deep state he built intends to survive him.
Khamenei spent decades shaping a system that prevents civilian alternatives from emerging. Presidents have been weakened, parliaments tamed, and independent clerical voices marginalized. By contrast, the IRGC has expanded across military, intelligence, internal security, regional operations, and large parts of the sanctioned economy. Formal succession rules remain on paper, but any “legal” solution will hold only if a coalition of Guard commanders, senior clerics, and insiders agrees to back it. Khamenei did not prepare Iran for life after him; he prepared the system to reproduce itself without him.
Why the IRGC Is Positioned to Control the Transition
That is why the immediate day after will likely be an IRGC‑led settlement rather than popular sovereignty.
The Guards control the hard power—bases, missile forces, internal security organs—and dominate economic channels that provide cash and leverage. Their first instinct in a crisis will be to protect commanders from prosecution, safeguard assets, and shape a leadership outcome that leaves them as ultimate arbiters. Whether the result is a weak new supreme leader, a collective council, or a “national salvation” government, the logic is the same: when the portrait comes down, the men with guns and money will be first to decide who goes up in its place.
None of this means Khamenei’s fall would be meaningless. It would shatter the aura of permanence around the system and embolden both elites and citizens to imagine alternatives. But it does mean that “liberation” is likely to be delayed, not delivered on day one. His departure will not magically erase the Basij, intelligence networks, prisons, or the patronage structures that tie millions of livelihoods to the state. The most realistic first post‑Khamenei order is a hybrid: formally more collective, perhaps more pragmatic on the surface, but structurally dominated by the same security actors. For ordinary Iranians, the morning after is more likely to feel like the aftermath of a palace coup than the fall of an empire.
What Could Break an IRGC-Managed Iran
The key question is not whether phase one happens—it almost certainly will—but whether it can hold. Three pressures could break or erode an IRGC‑heavy arrangement and open the door to a deeper transition.
First, renewed mass protest. A successor that cannot deliver economic relief, dignity, or even the illusion of change will face a society that has repeatedly shown a willingness to risk everything.
Second, elite fragmentation. The Guards are not monolithic; rival networks in business, the clergy, and the bureaucracy could split if the costs of isolation and mismanagement rise.
Third, the external environment. Sustained regional and international pressure that raises the price of repression and closes off easy sanctions‑busting rents could strain the security empire.
If these forces converge, the security elite that inherits Khamenei may find it cannot both keep what it has and stabilize the country. That is when a real opening appears.
Phase two will not be a Hollywood moment of sudden freedom but a messy process in which Iranians—through strikes, protests, negotiations, and sometimes violence—force a more fundamental renegotiation of the social contract. That could mean debates over a new constitution, serious regional demands for decentralization, and the emergence of leaders from inside society rather than only from exile or the old establishment.
If Iranians are ever to decide their own destiny, it will be at the expense of a weakened, divided security elite—not instead of it.
External Forces Should Not Legitimize an IRGC Takeover Nor Impose a Blueprint
For outside actors, especially the United States, this two‑phase logic is a warning against both naïve optimism and cynical fatalism. Naïve optimism assumes you remove Khamenei and you get democracy. Cynical fatalism assumes the IRGC will simply entrench itself forever. Both are wrong. The sober view is that the first post‑Khamenei order will be IRGC‑managed, and only the failure of that project will create a genuine opening. Policy should therefore avoid two mistakes: legitimizing a militarized restoration as reform, and imposing territorial or institutional blueprints from abroad. Instead, external powers should calibrate tools to keep space open—politically, diplomatically, and economically—for Iranians to turn a top‑level power struggle into a deeper reckoning with the system.
The day Khamenei falls, many will call it liberation. They will be right that an era has ended. But it will not yet be the birth of a free Iran. Between the Supreme Leader and the people stands an entire security empire that will try to inherit his throne. Whether Iranians can turn that inheritance into a reckoning—that, not the fall of one man, is the real question of the day after.
Comments
Post a Comment