Daily Market Briefing: Macro, Commodities, Tech, AI Infrastructure & Crypto

 

Daily Market Briefing: Macro, Commodities, Tech, AI Infrastructure & Crypto. 

Macroeconomic Indicators, Commodities & Fed Policy

• FOMC Interest Rate Odds & Policy: Benchmark target rate holds at 3.75%–4.00%. According to latest prediction market and swap data (Kalshi / Polymarket / CME FedWatch), markets are pricing in a 78%–80% probability of a 25 bps rate hike (to 4.00%–4.25%) at the upcoming December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent 3.4% YoY core PCE inflation and strong annualized GDP growth. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield ($TNX) is holding firm near 5.01%.
  
  
• Precious & Industrial Metals:
  
  
  • Gold Futures ($GC / COMEX): Settled near $4,076.10/oz (-$37.40 session pullback after touching mid-week historic highs above $4,100/oz), as traders lock in gains amid firm real Treasury yields.
    
    
  • Silver Futures ($SI / COMEX): Testing support near $49.10–$49.30/oz, range-bound alongside gold's consolidated tailwinds.
    
    
• Energy Futures:
  
  
  • WTI Crude Oil Futures ($CL): Closed Friday's session up at $90.83/bbl (+$0.31), recovering after a sharp midweek selloff to $88.12/bbl following reports of potential diplomatic discussions surrounding Middle East supply corridors.
    
    
  • Natural Gas Futures ($NG): Holding near $2.80–$2.89/MMBtu, with steady baseline LNG export feedgas demand (~18.5 bcfd) balancing mild near-term weather forecasts.
    
    
• Agricultural Commodities ($W, $C,$ZS):
  
  
  • Corn ($C / CBOT): December Corn closed Friday at $4.41 1/2 per bushel (+1 1/2 cents), supported by active domestic ethanol grind.
    
    
  • Soybeans ($ZS / CBOT): January Soybeans finished at $11.93 3/4 per bushel (+5 1/2 cents rebound), recovering after slipping to $11.88 amid final U.S. harvest completion.
    
    
  • Wheat ($W / CBOT): December Chicago Wheat closed down at $5.91 1/4 per bushel (-8 cents), under pressure from abundant global supply flows.
    
    

US-China AI Dynamics & Policy Guardrails

• China AI Export Restrictions (Announcement No. 48): MOFCOM and MOST export licensing rules strictly enforce registration guardrails across 23 artificial intelligence technology categories, targeting outbound open-weights models and AI platform software IP.
  
  
• U.S. Capital Flow Controls: U.S. Treasury oversight under the Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security Act restricts U.S. private equity and VC flows into Chinese AI models, advanced packaging, and quantum computing infrastructure.
  
  

AI Infrastructure & Supply Chain (NVDA, AMD, SMCI, TSM, ASML, AVGO)

• Super Micro Computer ($SMCI): Surged +8% to +10% following its stellar Q1 FY2027 print—posting $19.95B in revenue (up 298% YoY, beating consensus by $3.64B) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.81. AI-related rack-scale liquid-cooled architectures reached 70%+ of sales, driving FY2027 full-year revenue guidance up to $72B–$82B.
  
  
• AMD ($AMD): Rallied +6.85% following robust Data Center accelerator demand and expanding hyperscaler deployment pipelines alongside SMCI.
  
  
• Nvidia ($NVDA): Trading with solid momentum near $207.04 (+1.02%), supported by Blackwell cluster rollouts ahead of its Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings release on November 17–19.
  
  
• Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM): Supported by 68% HPC revenue contribution and advancing N2P process nodes.
  
  
• ASML Holding ($ASML): Supported by €11.7B quarterly net sales and committed EUV tool production capacity for 2027–2028.
  
  
• Broadcom ($AVGO): Outperforming on custom AI XPU ASIC co-design momentum and Tomahawk 6 switching deployments.
  
  

Broad Tech Earnings & Guidance

• Big Tech Momentum: Amazon ($AMZN at $250.21) and Microsoft ($MSFT at $517.25) pushed higher as total aggregate hyperscaler CapEx projections point toward $720B–$740B annually.
  
  
• Intel ($INTC): Supported by Data Center and AI segment growth (+78% YoY) driven by ongoing enterprise server refresh cycles.
  
  

Crypto Futures: Open Interest (OI), Funding Rates & 24-Hr Liquidations

• Total Crypto Market 24-Hr Liquidations: ~$147.75 Million cleared across leveraged positions in the past 24 hours (51.1% Longs / 48.9% Shorts), reflecting balanced position resets across key technical channels.
  
  
• Bitcoin ($BTC):
  
  
  • Perpetuals Price: Trading near $80,306 – $81,130.
    
    
  • Global Open Interest (OI): ~$7.71 Billion (CME & Crypto Native aggregate perps ~$18.83B), with long account share at 58.5%.
    
    
  • 24-Hour Liquidations: ~$147.5M aggregate market total (Shorts: $102.7M / 93.3%, Longs: $7.37M / 6.7%), driven by short squeezes above major $80k resistance.
    
    
  • Funding Rate: +0.0100% / 8-hr (10.9% annualized), indicating healthy long bias without over-leveraged premiums.
    
    
• Ethereum ($ETH):
  
  
  • Perpetuals Price: Trading near $2,356.42 – $2,420.
    
    
  • Global Open Interest (OI): ~$5.74 Billion (+4.24% 24h growth), with long account share at 66.3%.
    
    
  • 24-Hour Liquidations: ~$52.3M total (Shorts: $45.7M / 87.4%, Longs: $6.61M / 12.6%).
    
    
  • Funding Rate: Steady at +0.0100% / 8-hr (10.9% annualized).
    
    
• Solana ($SOL):
  
  
  • Perpetuals Price: Holding support near $96.72 – $102.13 (+1.1% 24h).
    
    
  • Global Open Interest (OI): ~$892.1 Million (+2.44% 24h growth), with long account share at 73.2%.
    
    
  • 24-Hour Liquidations: ~$6.74M total (Longs: $4.24M / 63%, Shorts: $2.50M / 37%).
    
    
  • Funding Rate: Moderate at +0.0100% / 8-hr (+0.0097% OI-weighted average).

By Jugo Ikeji Uju

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