President Donald Trump has been weakening Russia’s position as a great power in myriad ways, even as his critics say he is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s puppet.
Kto kogo? is the blunt question Vladimir Lenin would pose. Who is outplaying whom: President Donald Trump or Russian President Vladimir Putin?
For Trump’s critics, the answer is obvious. Putin, in their view, has deftly manipulated Trump to avoid any serious repercussions while defying his efforts to settle the Ukraine war. While Trump insists Putin is engaged in good-faith peace negotiations, the Russian strongman continues a brutal assault on Ukraine and gives no public indication that he is prepared to back away from his maximal goal of subjugating Ukraine for the sake of peace.
The critics might be right if US–Russian relations are viewed through the narrow prism of the Ukraine war. But widen the aperture, and the situation looks quite different.
Trump’s assertive foreign policy has markedly eroded Russia’s geopolitical position and tarnished its reputation as a great power. Yet Putin has remained largely silent.
Start with the Middle East. For the past two decades, Putin has positioned Russia as a major player there, building up ties with all the key regional powers—Egypt, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Trump has, however, acted as if Russia did not matter. He ignored its interests as he worked closely with Israel to weaken Iran, with which Russia had recently signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement. Trump’s judgment was on the mark. When he bombed Tehran’s nuclear sites last summer, Moscow provided little diplomatic or material support. Shortly thereafter, he abruptly dismissed Putin’s offer to mediate between Washington and Tehran.
Trump is now engaged in a high-stakes contest with Iran over its nuclear-weapons program and broader role in the Middle East. He has moved a substantial armada into the region, threatened military action, and talked of regime change, even as his representatives sit down to talk with Tehran. The best Moscow could do was muster a small joint naval drill with Iran in the Gulf of Oman.
Similarly, last fall Trump negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza, in which Moscow played no visible role. He has now set up a Board of Peace to deal with the enclave’s future, on which Russia, if it joined, would be just one of dozens of other participants without any special privileges. Moscow has so far refused—and remains on the sidelines as Trump’s diplomatic effort moves forward.
Meanwhile, in Latin America, Trump has paid no heed to Russia’s interests. He deposed Putin’s partner, Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, in a flawlessly executed, complex military operation that Russia cannot hope to replicate. For all practical purposes, Washington has now taken control of Venezuela’s oil sector, threatening eventually to restore the country’s exports—an act that would put downward pressure on world oil prices, to Russia’s detriment. At the same time, Washington is stepping up pressure to bring down the regime in Cuba, Russia’s longstanding ally in the Caribbean. Moscow has done little to alleviate that pressure.
Trump is even encroaching on Russia’s position in the former Soviet space, which Moscow has long considered its sphere of influence. He has stepped in to ease tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, displacing Russia’s efforts to stabilize relations between the two South Caucasian rivals. The United States is elevating relations with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the two key Central Asian states. It is also flirting with Putin’s Belarusian ally, Aleksandr Lukashenko. The pushback from Moscow has been minimal.
Even in Europe, where Trump is seemingly acting in ways that benefit Russia, the situation is not as straightforward as it might seem. The rupture in transatlantic relations—an enduring Russian dream—is not leading to a weaker Europe but to one more determined to develop its own hard-power capabilities and exercise strategic autonomy. That could eventually consolidate Europe as a geopolitical actor that would dwarf Russia in population, wealth, and usable power. Moreover, the issue that precipitated the rupture—Trump’s claim to Greenland—should worry Moscow. Trump said the United States needed to control the Arctic island to protect it against a growing threat from Russia and China. That is an indication that he sees Russia as a competitor, not a potential partner, in the Arctic, despite Moscow’s persistent effort to portray the region as a zone of lucrative commercial cooperation.
The geopolitical challenges alone should suffice to give Moscow pause, but Trump has also shown little interest in dealing with Moscow on nuclear weapons—the one area in which Russia considers itself America’s equal. Washington never responded to Putin’s proposal to adhere to the ceilings on warheads and delivery vehicles after the expiration of the New START agreement. Instead, Trump boasted that he could negotiate a better agreement with both Russia and China. In the meantime, he has not ruled out a nuclear arms race—which Russia has long sought to avoid and cannot win—and he is pressing ahead with the Golden Dome missile defense system. Even if never fully operational, that system will still raise profound concerns in Moscow about the reliability of its strategic deterrent.
It is unlikely that all these actions are part of a concerted effort to diminish Russia’s standing as a great power—Trump, after all, has repeatedly said that getting closer to Russia would be a good thing. But they do reflect a calculation that, on issues of utmost importance to Trump, Russia does not matter all that much. He neither needs to worry about its resistance nor seek its support, in part because Putin’s Ukrainian obsession has left him with few resources to protect Russia’s interests farther afield.
This geopolitical and strategic pressure, even if not deliberate, casts the negotiations over the Russia–Ukraine war in a different light. Putin may indeed be dragging out negotiations in the hope of ultimately achieving his maximal goal. But he might not be playing Trump as skillfully as many observers contend. Rather, while he single-mindedly pursues his objectives in Ukraine, Trump is vigorously advancing US goals worldwide at Russia’s expense.
Kto kogo? So far, it’s Trump.
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