Bitter truth

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                           Realist International Relations Lens

Realism assumes:

  • States are primary actors.

  • The international system is anarchic (no global sovereign).

  • Survival and power outweigh moral claims.

  • Trust is secondary to capability.

From a realist standpoint, the war between Russia and Ukraine is fundamentally about security architecture in Eastern Europe, not ideology.

A. How Realists View the EU

The European Union is not a unified military actor but a hybrid political-economic bloc. Realists would argue:

  • EU elites are managing a balance-of-power crisis.

  • Russia challenges NATO’s eastward expansion.

  • The EU’s survival depends on U.S. security guarantees.

  • Simultaneously, Europe depends economically on China.

This creates a strategic triangle:

SecurityEconomicGeopolitical
USChinaRussia

Realism says: You cannot afford to antagonize two poles simultaneously.

Thus:

  • The EU confronts Russia directly.

  • The EU manages China cautiously.

  • The EU reinforces U.S. alignment.

That is not fear — it is power calculus.

B. Can China End the War? (Realist Answer)

Realists would argue:

China benefits from:

  • A weakened but intact Russia.

  • A distracted West.

  • Discounted Russian energy.

  • Expanded BRICS leverage.

China does not want:

  • Russian collapse.

  • NATO direct victory.

  • Nuclear escalation.

  • Secondary sanctions.

Therefore, Beijing’s strategy is controlled ambiguity.

Realists conclude:
China will not end the war unless doing so increases its relative power.

C. Are EU Elites Benefiting?

Realism rejects moral framing.

Defense industries benefit.
Energy diversification strengthens long-term resilience.
Strategic autonomy gains urgency.

War is costly — but it also clarifies alliances.

In realist logic:
Conflict can consolidate bloc cohesion.

Dependency Theory Framework

Dependency theory shifts the focus from states to global economic hierarchy.

Core ideas:

  • Global capitalism is structured between core and periphery.

  • Wealth extraction flows from weaker states to stronger ones.

  • War can reinforce dependency chains.

A. Where Does the EU Sit?

The EU is part of the “core.”
Russia is a semi-peripheral energy exporter.
Ukraine functions largely as a peripheral commodity supplier.
China occupies a complex position — core manufacturer but system challenger.

From this view:

  • Ukraine becomes a geopolitical battleground.

  • Reconstruction contracts will tie Ukraine deeper to Western capital.

  • Energy flows restructure European dependence.

Dependency theory asks:

Is the war reshaping who controls capital flows in Eastern Europe?

B. China’s Role

China operates as an alternative pole of accumulation.

It:

  • Absorbs discounted Russian raw materials.

  • Expands yuan settlement mechanisms.

  • Strengthens Global South alignment.

Dependency scholars would argue:

The war accelerates fragmentation of global capitalism into competing blocs.

China does not “end” wars that strengthen its systemic leverage.

C. Are EU Elites Exploiting the War?

Dependency theorists would say:

Elite classes often adapt crises into consolidation opportunities:

  • Defense procurement cycles expand.

  • Energy infrastructure shifts from Russian pipelines to LNG terminals.

  • U.S.–EU economic alignment deepens.

However, this does not mean the war was “engineered.”
Rather, crises are metabolized into systemic restructuring.

In this lens:
The question is not “who is scared?”
The question is “who reconfigures value chains?”

Ubuntu-Centered Moral-Political Perspective

Ubuntu begins with:

“I am because we are.”

This framework rejects zero-sum geopolitics.

It evaluates actions based on:

  • Human dignity.

  • Relational accountability.

  • Collective healing.

  • Long-term communal balance.

A. From Ubuntu’s View

The war represents:

  • A failure of relational diplomacy.

  • A breakdown of shared security imagination.

  • An overreliance on deterrence logic.

Ubuntu would ask:

Why did the security architecture fail to include Russia relationally?
Why are civilians absorbing elite-level strategic decisions?
Why is negotiation reactive instead of restorative?

B. On China’s Role

Ubuntu would critique strategic ambiguity.

If China has leverage and remains neutral to preserve advantage,
Ubuntu would view that as relationally incomplete.

Peace requires moral courage beyond economic calculus.

C. On the EU

If the EU prioritizes:

  • Economic stability over human suffering,

  • Strategic positioning over restorative justice,

Ubuntu would call that moral fragmentation.

But Ubuntu would also criticize:

  • Russia’s invasion as relational violence.

  • NATO’s security expansion if it ignored mutual security perceptions.

  • China’s neutrality if it sustains prolongation.

Ubuntu does not assign singular blame.
It diagnoses systemic relational breakdown.

Comparative Summary

LensCore QuestionConclusion
RealismWho gains power?EU balances; China hedges; Russia resists; Ukraine survives.
DependencyWho restructures capital flows?War accelerates bloc fragmentation and elite consolidation.
UbuntuWho restores relational dignity?All actors are trapped in power logic instead of communal restoration.

Final Clarification

Your underlying suspicion — “Who’s fooling who?” — reflects distrust of elite transparency.

Realism says: No one is fooled. Everyone knows the game.
Dependency theory says: The system reproduces itself through crises.
Ubuntu says: The real loss is relational trust among peoples.


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