HORN OF AFRICA & RED SEA-
Somalia: Security, State Building and the Battle for the Horn
Somalia occupies one of the most strategically important positions in Africa.
It has Africa's longest coastline, stretching roughly 3,330 kilometres along the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, and an enormous exclusive economic zone.
Yet Somalia's geographic advantages coexist with one of the continent's most difficult state-building environments.
For more than three decades, Somalia has faced the combined pressures of:
weak central institutions
armed insurgency
clan and regional political competition
federal disputes
humanitarian crises
foreign military involvement
maritime insecurity
economic underdevelopment.
The result is a country whose geography gives it enormous strategic potential while its political fragmentation limits how effectively that potential can be converted into national power.
1. Why Somalia matters
Look at Somalia on the map.
It projects into the Indian Ocean like a giant peninsula.
To the north is the Gulf of Aden.
Across the Gulf is Yemen.
To the west is Ethiopia.
To the northwest is Djibouti.
Farther south lies Kenya.
And immediately offshore is one of the world's major maritime systems.
The strategic chain is:
Suez Canal
Red Sea
Bab el-Mandeb
Gulf of Aden
Somalia
Indian Ocean
This means Somalia sits beside the maritime corridor connecting Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
Its coastline is therefore not simply a geographic feature.
It is a potential strategic asset.
2. Somalia's maritime potential
The scale of Somalia's maritime resources is remarkable.
The World Bank estimates:
approximately 3,330 km of coastline
an exclusive economic zone of about 830,390 km²
significant fisheries potential
highly productive marine ecosystems.
Some assessments cited by the World Bank suggest sustainable annual fish catch potential could exceed 300,000 tonnes. Yet the fisheries sector remains significantly underdeveloped. (World Bank)
This creates an extraordinary economic opportunity.
Somalia potentially has:
fisheries
ports
shipping
logistics
offshore resources
maritime services
Indian Ocean trade
But turning these assets into national wealth requires something Somalia has struggled to establish:
Effective maritime governance.
3. The security problem: al-Shabaab
The central security challenge remains al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-linked militant organization.
The group has demonstrated considerable resilience despite years of military operations against it.
The Council on Foreign Relations reports that al-Shabaab has exploited gaps in state authority, clan divisions and humanitarian pressures, while continuing attacks against military, government and civilian targets.
This is important because al-Shabaab is not simply a military problem.
It operates within a broader political environment characterized by:
limited state capacity
local grievances
contested authority
weak service delivery
clan networks
economic vulnerability.
Therefore, defeating the organization militarily does not automatically resolve the conditions that allow it to operate.
4. The 2022 offensive — and what happened afterward
Somalia's federal government launched a major offensive against al-Shabaab in 2022, supported by local clan militias and international partners.
The offensive initially produced significant territorial gains.
But those gains subsequently lost momentum.
The European Union Agency for Asylum reported that by 2025 the government's offensive had largely stalled and al-Shabaab had adapted by emphasizing rural operations while maintaining pressure on government-held urban areas.
The security challenge therefore remains unresolved.
This creates a difficult equation:
Government controls cities
but
al-Shabaab retains influence in parts of the countryside.
That creates a fragmented security landscape.
5. Why military victory alone is difficult
Suppose Somali forces capture a territory.
The government then has to:
hold it;
establish administration;
provide security;
deliver justice;
collect revenue;
provide basic services;
create economic opportunities;
prevent militants from returning.
The eighth step is often the hardest.
If the state can capture territory but cannot establish durable institutions, military gains may not translate into permanent political control.
This is one of the fundamental lessons of Somalia's state-building experience.
6. Federalism: the second great battle
Security is only one dimension of Somalia's challenge.
The other is political architecture.
Somalia is a federal republic.
The federal government in Mogadishu interacts with federal member states including:
Puntland
Jubaland
South West
Galmudug
Hirshabelle.
There is also the distinct situation of Somaliland, which has operated as a de facto separate polity in northwestern Somalia and seeks international recognition.
The federal system is intended to distribute political authority.
But disagreements over:
constitutional powers
elections
taxation
security forces
resource control
territorial authority
have repeatedly produced tensions between Mogadishu and regional governments.
The EUAA described relations between the federal government and Puntland and Jubaland as having reached a serious breakdown by late 2025, with electoral disputes contributing to clashes.
7. The centralization-versus-federalism dilemma
Somalia faces a difficult institutional question:
How much power should belong to Mogadishu?
A strong central government can potentially:
coordinate national security
negotiate internationally
manage national resources
establish uniform institutions.
But regional governments fear excessive centralization.
Conversely, strong federal member states can:
provide local administration
reflect regional interests
develop security capacity
bring government closer to communities.
But excessive fragmentation can weaken national authority.
So Somalia's state-building problem is partly a balancing act:
National unity
versus
regional autonomy.
A durable political settlement has to make both compatible.
8. Clan politics cannot simply be ignored
Somalia's political system also operates through powerful clan and sub-clan networks.
Clan identity influences:
political alliances
local security
access to resources
representation
conflict resolution
militia mobilization.
This does not mean Somali politics can be reduced to clan identity.
Somali political life also involves:
ideology
business interests
religion
regional interests
urban politics
generational change
international relationships.
But clan structures remain important to understanding how authority operates outside formal government institutions.
9. Foreign military partnerships
Somalia has become an arena for extensive international security cooperation.
Major external partners include:
United States
Türkiye
Egypt
European states
African Union
and other international partners.
Their roles differ.
10. United States: counterterrorism
The United States has supported Somali security forces and conducted counterterrorism operations against al-Shabaab and Islamic State elements.
U.S. assistance has included training, intelligence, air operations and other security support.
The strategic rationale is straightforward:
A more secure Somalia reduces threats to:
East Africa
the Gulf of Aden
international shipping
regional governments
U.S. personnel and interests.
But continued dependence on external military support raises an important state-building question:
At what point can Somali security institutions independently provide national security?
That question has become increasingly important as international funding arrangements change.
11. Türkiye: security + maritime strategy
Türkiye has developed an especially deep relationship with Somalia.
Türkiye operates a major military training facility in Mogadishu and has trained Somali forces, including the Gorgor special forces.
More importantly for this series, Ankara has increasingly connected security cooperation with maritime development.
In February 2024, Somalia and Türkiye signed a ten-year framework agreement under which Türkiye committed to help build, train and equip the Somali navy. The Somali government describes the agreement as covering maritime security, protection against piracy and illegal fishing, and economic cooperation involving marine resources.
This is strategically significant.
Türkiye is not simply helping Somalia fight militants.
It is also helping Somalia develop the capacity to control its maritime territory.
That could eventually affect:
piracy
illegal fishing
maritime taxation
fisheries
offshore resources
port security
naval power.
12. Egypt: security and regional geopolitics
Egypt has also expanded security cooperation with Somalia.
Egypt and Somalia have emphasized cooperation in:
military training
counterterrorism
border security
strengthening Somali state institutions.
Egypt has also supported Somalia's territorial integrity in the context of disputes involving Ethiopia and Somaliland.
This has a wider regional dimension.
Egypt and Ethiopia have strategic disagreements over the Nile and Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Somalia's location next to Ethiopia therefore gives its diplomatic relationships with Egypt additional geopolitical significance.
Somalia increasingly sits within a larger triangle involving:
Egypt
Ethiopia
Somalia
with Türkiye and other external powers also playing roles.
13. The Ethiopia–Somalia question
One of Somalia's most consequential recent diplomatic disputes involved Ethiopia's attempt to secure maritime access.
In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum with Somaliland concerning access to the Red Sea.
Somalia rejected the arrangement, arguing that Somaliland remains part of Somalia.
The dispute created serious regional tensions.
But in December 2024, Ethiopia and Somalia signed the Ankara Declaration.
The two governments reaffirmed Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity while recognizing Ethiopia's need for reliable access to the sea. They agreed to pursue mutually beneficial commercial arrangements under Somali sovereignty.
This is a critical geopolitical development.
It suggests that:
Ethiopia needs maritime access.
Somalia possesses maritime territory.
Both have an economic interest in cooperation.
The challenge is finding a framework that both governments regard as respecting sovereignty.
14. Somalia's coastline as strategic leverage
This brings us back to geography.
Somalia has something Ethiopia does not:
A huge coastline.
And Ethiopia has something Somalia desperately needs:
A huge neighboring market and regional economic weight.
This could produce competition.
Or it could produce interdependence.
Consider the possibilities:
Ethiopia
→ trade
→ investment
→ manufacturing
→ logistics demand
↓
Somalia
→ ports
→ maritime access
→ fisheries
→ logistics corridors.
If managed through mutually agreed commercial arrangements, geography could become a source of economic cooperation rather than conflict.
15. The piracy problem returns
Somalia's maritime geography has another side.
The same coastline that creates economic potential can facilitate:
piracy
smuggling
illegal fishing
weapons trafficking
human trafficking
militant logistics.
Somali piracy became one of the world's most visible maritime-security problems during the late 2000s and early 2010s.
International naval patrols subsequently helped suppress piracy.
But the problem has not disappeared permanently.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported renewed piracy activity in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean since late 2023, alongside broader competition over ports and maritime access.
In May 2026, CSIS reported that the Joint Maritime Information Center had raised the piracy threat level off the Somali coast and Somali Basin to "severe."
This matters because shipping companies respond to maritime risk through:
higher insurance costs
altered routes
additional security
slower transit
increased freight costs.
Somalia's internal security therefore has potential consequences for international commerce.
16. Somalia and the global shipping system
Think about the geography again:
Somalia
Gulf of Aden
Bab el-Mandeb
Red Sea
Suez
Europe
That is one of the world's major commercial arteries.
When maritime security deteriorates, international shipping can be affected.
Recent disruptions around the Red Sea have already encouraged some Somali businesses to seek alternative maritime routes and direct connections with Asian suppliers, illustrating how regional security conditions can reach domestic markets.
Somalia therefore has a paradoxical position:
The country is partly marginalized from global economic networks while simultaneously sitting beside one of their most important maritime corridors.
17. The economic opportunity
Somalia's economic potential is broader than many outside observers realize.
Potential sectors include:
Fisheries
Large marine resources remain substantially underdeveloped.
Ports
Mogadishu, Kismayo, Bosaso and other ports could become regional logistics assets.
Livestock
Somalia's livestock trade already plays an important role in its economy.
Agriculture
Irrigated agriculture and food production offer opportunities along the country's river systems.
Telecommunications
Somalia has developed a surprisingly dynamic telecommunications and mobile-money ecosystem.
Diaspora investment
Somalis abroad provide substantial remittances and investment.
Maritime services
A secure coastline could support shipping, fisheries, logistics and offshore industries.
The World Bank identifies ports, fisheries, agriculture, energy and private-sector development among Somalia's significant opportunities.
18. But the jobs problem is enormous
Economic transformation has to keep pace with Somalia's young population.
The World Bank estimates that roughly 500,000 people enter Somalia's labor force every year, while only around 80,000 jobs are created.
That gap has enormous political significance.
Young people need:
employment
education
skills
business opportunities
security
mobility.
Without these, armed groups, informal economies and migration can become more attractive options.
This is why state-building cannot be separated from economic development.
19. The aid dependence problem
Somalia has made progress in economic and institutional reform.
It also reached the HIPC completion point, substantially reducing its external debt burden.
But the country remains heavily dependent on external assistance.
The World Bank reported that declining foreign aid, drought and rising living costs contributed to slower economic growth in 2025. Real GDP growth was estimated at 3% in 2025, with the 2026 outlook projected at 2.8%.
This creates another state-building dilemma:
International assistance helps build institutions and security.
But
long-term dependence can make national institutions financially vulnerable when external funding declines.
The challenge is therefore to move gradually from:
aid-supported state capacity
toward:
domestically financed state capacity.
20. The future of AUSSOM
The African Union's Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is another critical component of the security architecture.
Its purpose is to support Somali forces and help the federal government assume greater responsibility for national security.
But financing has become increasingly difficult.
In September 2026, the United States agreed to give the United Nations another year to wind down its support for the logistics system supporting African Union peacekeepers, while declining to continue funding the UN Support Office in Somalia. Reuters reported concerns from analysts that a premature loss of international support could weaken the Somali government and increase fragmentation risks.
This creates a major test:
Can Somalia gradually assume responsibility for its own security as external support decreases?
That may be one of the most important questions facing the country.
21. State building is ultimately about legitimacy
Military force can secure territory.
It cannot by itself create legitimacy.
A durable Somali state requires citizens to believe that national institutions can:
provide security
administer justice
collect taxes fairly
protect property
deliver basic services
resolve political disputes
represent different regions
protect maritime resources.
That means the ultimate contest is not simply:
Government vs al-Shabaab.
It is also:
State institutions vs fragmented authority.
And that is a much longer struggle.
22. The federal government's strategic dilemma
Mogadishu faces several simultaneous tasks:
Security
Defeat or contain al-Shabaab and other armed groups.
Federalism
Develop a workable relationship with federal member states.
Elections
Build an accepted electoral and constitutional framework.
Finance
Increase domestic revenue and reduce dependence on donors.
Maritime security
Protect Somalia's enormous coastline.
Foreign policy
Balance Türkiye, Egypt, the United States, Gulf states, Ethiopia and other external actors.
Economic development
Create enough jobs for a rapidly growing labor force.
No single one can be solved in isolation.
23. Somalia's strategic paradox
Somalia may possess one of the greatest examples in Africa of underutilized geography.
It has:
3,330 km coastline
830,000+ km² EEZ
Indian Ocean access
Gulf of Aden access
proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb
proximity to Arabian markets
proximity to Ethiopia
large fisheries potential
major ports
Yet these advantages have not translated into proportional national economic power.
The missing ingredient is not geography.
It is state capacity.
24. The bigger Horn of Africa picture
Somalia sits at the center of several overlapping strategic relationships.
Ethiopia
Needs maritime access.
Djibouti
Controls a major existing corridor into Ethiopia.
Eritrea
Possesses Red Sea coastline.
Yemen
Sits across the Gulf of Aden.
Egypt
Has strategic interests in the Red Sea and Nile Basin.
Türkiye
Has deepening security and maritime ties with Somalia.
United States
Maintains counterterrorism and regional-security interests.
Gulf states
Have major commercial and strategic interests along the Red Sea and Horn.
Somalia is therefore not peripheral to Horn geopolitics.
It is one of its central theatres.
25. The strategic opportunity
Somalia's transformation would have consequences far beyond Somalia itself.
Imagine a future in which Somalia can reliably secure its territory and waters.
Then:
Secure coastline
Lower maritime risk
More shipping and investment
Stronger ports
Expanded fisheries
More customs revenue
More government capacity
More security capability
Greater national sovereignty
That is a potential security-development feedback loop.
The opposite loop is also possible:
Weak security
Lower investment
Weak economic opportunity
Greater vulnerability
Stronger armed groups
More insecurity
That is why Somalia's future cannot be understood through military affairs alone.
Central Lesson
Somalia's greatest strategic asset may also be one of its greatest vulnerabilities: geography.
Its enormous coastline places it beside one of the world's most important maritime corridors.
But controlling that geography requires functioning institutions.
The central challenge is therefore:
Can Somalia transform a strategically located but fragile state into a sovereign maritime and economic power?
That requires progress on four interconnected fronts:
Security
Defeat or contain militant organizations and establish reliable national security institutions.
Federalism
Create a workable balance between Mogadishu and the federal member states.
Maritime power
Develop the navy, coast guard, ports, fisheries and maritime regulatory institutions needed to control Somali waters.
Economic state-building
Turn ports, fisheries, livestock, agriculture, telecommunications and trade into domestic employment and government revenue.
If these elements begin reinforcing one another, Somalia's strategic significance could increasingly become an African asset rather than merely a security problem managed by outside powers.
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