Sahel 2035 Watch — Meaningful Shift.
The latest evidence points to a mixed but important shift:
The AES is becoming more institutionally coherent and is now exploring a new relationship with ECOWAS, but the security environment is deteriorating faster than the political/economic architecture is consolidating.
For the 2035 scenarios, I assess this as negative for stabilization, positive for the “new regional power” scenario, but still increasingly dangerous for fragmentation.
Security: the biggest deterioration
The security trend remains the most serious concern. ACLED data reported in mid-September showed 2,145 jihadist-related events in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger during 2026, putting the region on track to exceed 3,000 for the year if the pace continues.
The broader Africa Center assessment is even more concerning: roughly 9,928 fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel over the preceding year, representing about 42% of such fatalities across Africa. JNIM accounted for approximately 76% of militant-linked fatalities in the region.
The September 10 Dioura attack in Mali, in which JNIM claimed very high numbers of soldiers killed and captured, is particularly important because it demonstrated the ability of militants to inflict major losses on a national military formation. The exact JNIM casualty claims remain independently unverified, but the Malian military confirmed significant losses.
2035 assessment: Fragmentation risk
AES institution-building: a genuine countertrend
At the same time, the AES is moving beyond political declarations.
On September 16–17, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger adopted a framework for coordinated management of their shared borders, including cooperation among regional administrators, security coordination, humanitarian response and economic development.
This is significant because it attempts to address one of the insurgency's greatest structural advantages:
jihadist networks operate across borders while governments traditionally operate within them.
If the AES can actually create integrated border intelligence, customs, transport and security mechanisms, this could eventually improve state capacity.
2035 assessment: New Regional Power
A potentially important political opening: AES–ECOWAS relations
A new development on September 28–29 deserves particular attention.
AES officials have begun discussing a new framework agreement with ECOWAS, aimed at defining relations between the two blocs while developing deeper integration of trade, investment, movement of people and goods.
This could become one of the most consequential developments for the region's medium-term trajectory.
It suggests that the original AES–ECOWAS rupture may be evolving from:
separation → confrontation → negotiated coexistence.
That does not mean the AES is preparing to return to ECOWAS.
The more interesting possibility is:
Two politically distinct West African structures sharing an increasingly integrated economic space.
That could allow the AES to preserve its political sovereignty while reducing the economic penalties of geographic isolation.
2035 assessment: Stabilization / New Regional Power
Economic sovereignty: moving toward industrial policy
AES governments are also increasingly emphasizing processing resources locally, rather than merely exporting raw commodities.
Their September Energy, Mining and Hydrocarbons initiative specifically emphasizes processing gold, uranium, lithium, oil, gas and iron within the region.
This is strategically important.
If successful, the sequence becomes:
resources → processing → manufacturing → jobs → tax revenue → infrastructure → strategic autonomy.
That is much more consequential than simply changing ownership of foreign-operated mines.
However, the AES will need substantial capital, technology, electricity and transport infrastructure to achieve it. This means external partnerships will remain necessary.
2035 assessment: New Regional Power
Economic vulnerability remains significant
The reduction of Ghanaian fuel exports to Burkina Faso and Mali demonstrates the continuing vulnerability of the landlocked AES economies to coastal supply chains.
Reuters reported that Ghana's BOST supplied Burkina Faso with only 40,000 tonnes out of 80,000 tonnes requested, and Mali received only 10,000 tonnes against a request for 50,000 tonnes.
This reinforces a fundamental lesson:
Political sovereignty cannot overcome geography by itself.
The AES therefore needs multiple coastal corridors, energy infrastructure, storage capacity and diversified suppliers.
This makes the emerging AES–ECOWAS economic dialogue particularly important.
Climate: still a latent multiplier
The climate outlook remains unfavorable. The developing 2026–27 El Niño is expected to produce severe heat and rainfall disruptions across parts of Africa, with the Sahel among the vulnerable regions.
The strategic significance is indirect but substantial:
climate stress → food insecurity → pastoral migration → competition over land/water → displacement → local conflict → militant recruitment.
Climate therefore continues to amplify the security crisis rather than constitute a separate problem.
2035 assessment: Fragmentation risk
Updated Sahel 2035 Scenario Matrix
| Scenario | Current judgment | |
|---|---|---|
| Stabilized Sahel | Weak | |
| Fragmented/contested Sahel | Serious and growing risk | |
| New Regional Power | Increasingly credible | |
| Hybrid: AES power + persistent insecurity | Most plausible |
My current interpretation
The most plausible trajectory is no longer simply “AES succeeds” versus “AES fails.”
It is increasingly:
A more coherent AES political-economic bloc coexisting with persistent jihadist insecurity and incomplete territorial control.
That would represent a new form of African regional power: greater geopolitical autonomy without complete domestic stabilization.
The next decisive indicators
I will treat the following as especially important scenario-changing developments:
A successful AES joint operation that measurably reduces jihadist territorial control.
Another major military defeat or internal mutiny in Mali, Burkina Faso or Niger.
Implementation—not merely negotiation—of the AES–ECOWAS framework.
Creation of functioning AES-wide trade, customs, energy or industrial mechanisms.
Evidence that resource processing is generating substantial domestic employment and fiscal revenue.
Expansion or contraction of Russian and Algerian security involvement.
Major JNIM/IS expansion toward Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire or Nigeria.
Significant climate-driven displacement or food-security deterioration.
This week's net shift is mixed, but strategically important.
The security picture continues to deteriorate, keeping fragmentation risk high. Yet the AES is simultaneously demonstrating greater institutional maturity, especially in cross-border governance and resource policy. Most importantly, the emerging AES–ECOWAS dialogue offers a possible mechanism for combining political separation with economic interdependence.
So the central question for Sahel 2035 is becoming:
Can the AES build enough state and economic capacity fast enough to prevent jihadist territorial power from outpacing regional institution-building?
Current trajectory: New Regional Power , Fragmentation Risk , Stabilization only marginally improved.
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